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有五種理論可以解釋美股暴漲,哪個最靠譜?

有五種理論可以解釋美股暴漲,哪個最靠譜?

Anne Sraders 2020年07月14日
本文按照靠譜程度給這五種理論排序,越往后越靠譜。

全世界正在經歷有史以來最嚴重的經濟危機之一,更不用說新冠疫情已經奪去了50多萬人的生命。然而,股市不會停止上漲。

盡管業余的市場觀察家可能會摸不著頭腦,但務必要銘記,市場是一種前瞻性機制。這意味著,即使在最壞的情況下(比如,全球經濟衰退與致命疫情疊加在一起),市場也可能會展望光明的前景。

在證券經紀商LPL Financial公司的高級市場策略師瑞安?德特里克等人看來,這似乎就是正在發生的事情。

“股市在說:‘一年后,冠狀病毒就不再是問題。’它正在把目光投向別處。”德特里克告訴《財富》雜志。

自3月觸底以來,標準普爾500指數已經大幅反彈42%。這意味著,今年迄今為止,該指數僅下跌了2%。在過去兩周,盡管全美各地的新冠確診病例繼續激增,但股市卻上漲了約3%。

那么,股市近期上漲的根本原因是什么?《財富》雜志日前就這一問題采訪了三位策略師。

理論一:股市上漲是因為新冠疫情得到了控制

可能性: 不可能

盡管市場正處于上漲軌道,但投資者可能并不是因為覺得疫情得到控制而不斷買入股票的。事實上,德特里克表示,許多人仍然“嚇得要死”。

不過,隨著確診病例持續激增,“大家現在像是一個休戚與共的大家庭,每個人都在祈禱。”嘉信理財的首席投資策略師利茲?安?桑德斯這樣說道。事實上,市場最近并不是一帆風順:近幾周出現了兩次回調,“與病毒有關的負面新聞至少是其中的部分推動因素。”桑德斯說。

但這并不意味著投資者現在只關注疫情走向。事實上,在愛德華?瓊斯公司的策略師內拉?理查森看來,“投資者更傾向于認為,最好的行情還在后面。我認為市場正處于第一波疫情的前面,甚至走在了第二波疫情的前面,并且已經在展望2021年了。”她告訴《財富》雜志。

理論二:市場上漲是因為投資者希望拜登在11月的大選中獲勝

可能性:不可能

大選總是會讓市場動蕩不安,而且不只是在大選之夜。

一些華爾街公司現在認為,民主黨總統候選人拜登的勝利,對于股市來說甚至可能是好兆頭。“目前的普遍看法是,如果民主黨在11月成功問鼎白宮,將對股市構成利空。不過,我們認為這種結果對股市的影響是中性的,甚至輕微利好。”摩根大通的策略師在7月6日發布的報告中寫道。

愛德華?瓊斯的理查森說:“市場的估值正在把總統候選人將持有溫和立場這一因素考慮在內。因此,鑒于未來總統喬?拜登的政策主張更為溫和,民主黨將現任總統挑落下馬,并不會被市場視為一種極端不利因素。”

然而,包括德特里克在內的多位策略師“并不認為股市是因為拜登將入主白宮而上漲了這么多,至少現在不是這樣。”他說。

理論三:市場上漲是因為企業盈利在好轉

可能性:有可能

鑒于數十家公司已經暫停發布業績指引,相關預測慘不忍睹,投資者基本上不再關注2020年的盈利狀況。這已經不是什么秘密了。事實上,《財富》雜志在6月初報道稱,投資者已經不理會2020年的數據,轉而將目光投向2021年的盈利前景,并以此為據來解釋目前的股價走勢。但桑德斯不太相信這種看法。“即使你對2021年的盈利有所期待,我也不認為在這種環境下,誰會對盈利前景信心十足。”她說。

投資者似乎確信,第二季度的盈利數據可能不會像預期的那樣糟糕。

研究公司FactSet的分析師團隊預計,第二季度的盈利將暴跌43.8%。但德特里克認為,如此巨大的數字可能會讓市場出現意外的上漲行情。“可以有把握地說,市場像目前這樣反彈,意味著投資者預計企業的收益將趨于穩定,或者好于預期。”他說。

事實上,理查森認為,“市場已經消化了第二季度盈利有可能大幅下滑的影響,并且預計第三和第四季度的下滑速度將會放緩。”他說:“任何改善,哪怕數據仍然很難看,也會被視為利好。”

理論四:股市上漲是因為經濟數據好于預期

可能性:很有可能

德特里克最相信的理論是,經濟重啟的過程將好于預期,盡管不會一帆風順。

“股市告訴我們,美國經濟的穩健程度確實有可能在今年下半年大幅改善,因為股價走勢往往會引領實體經濟。我們認為,看好經濟重啟的前景,或許是市場近期迅速反彈的最強推動力。”他說。

6月的失業率從5月的13.3%和4月的14.7%降至11.1%。與此同時,在連續兩個月大幅下降后,消費支出在5月大幅上升8.2%。

制造業也在回暖。供應管理協會編撰的采購經理人指數(PMI)在6月錄得52.6,高于5月的43.1(任何高于50的讀數都表明制造業處于擴張狀態)。在德特里克看來,制造業的反彈堪稱“煤礦里的金絲雀”,是經濟復蘇的好兆頭。

愛德華?瓊斯的理查森認為,“正是所有這些來自經濟基本面的驚喜”,在最近幾周提振了市場。“市場關注的不是實際水平,而是變化率。這些變化率現在指向一種積極的、比正常情況更快的復蘇。”她說。

但不斷改善的數字也構成了威脅。桑德斯認為,“對最初幾個月的數據點所做的趨勢外推太過超前了。在這種環境下,重要的還是數據的實際水平。”

理論五:股市上漲是拜美聯儲所賜

可能性:極有可能

市場為什么會上漲?如果你問嘉信理財的桑德斯,答案很簡單。“如果要對推動股市上漲的最相關因素進行排序的話,我認為最大的推動力就是美聯儲,或許還會加上國會,也就是廣泛的刺激措施。”

在過去的幾個月,從啟動主街貸款計劃(Main Street Lending Program),到購買公司債券,再到將利率降至基本為零的水平,美聯儲已經做了所有能做的事情。與此同時,聯邦政府啟動了規模達2萬億美元的《冠狀病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法案》(CARES Act)。

即使經濟迅速惡化,“不要和美聯儲作對”這種心態仍然推動市場高歌猛進。桑德斯指出,投資者認為美聯儲“將在必要時采取行動”,這種想法“或許是對的”。但她擔心投資者過于依賴美聯儲主席鮑威爾手里的那把“流動性注水器”。

桑德斯指出,美聯儲是金融體系的后盾,但“他們的使命并不是在金融系統不穩定的情況下阻止股市下跌。”從這個意義上說,她想知道,“在美聯儲推動的股市上漲中,有多少是基于美聯儲出于正確理由而實際采取的刺激措施,有多少是基于這樣一種預期:無論發生什么情況,股市都不會下跌,因為美聯儲會介入?”(財富中文網)

譯者:任文科

全世界正在經歷有史以來最嚴重的經濟危機之一,更不用說新冠疫情已經奪去了50多萬人的生命。然而,股市不會停止上漲。

盡管業余的市場觀察家可能會摸不著頭腦,但務必要銘記,市場是一種前瞻性機制。這意味著,即使在最壞的情況下(比如,全球經濟衰退與致命疫情疊加在一起),市場也可能會展望光明的前景。

在證券經紀商LPL Financial公司的高級市場策略師瑞安?德特里克等人看來,這似乎就是正在發生的事情。

“股市在說:‘一年后,冠狀病毒就不再是問題。’它正在把目光投向別處。”德特里克告訴《財富》雜志。

自3月觸底以來,標準普爾500指數已經大幅反彈42%。這意味著,今年迄今為止,該指數僅下跌了2%。在過去兩周,盡管全美各地的新冠確診病例繼續激增,但股市卻上漲了約3%。

那么,股市近期上漲的根本原因是什么?《財富》雜志日前就這一問題采訪了三位策略師。

理論一:股市上漲是因為新冠疫情得到了控制

可能性: 不可能

盡管市場正處于上漲軌道,但投資者可能并不是因為覺得疫情得到控制而不斷買入股票的。事實上,德特里克表示,許多人仍然“嚇得要死”。

不過,隨著確診病例持續激增,“大家現在像是一個休戚與共的大家庭,每個人都在祈禱。”嘉信理財的首席投資策略師利茲?安?桑德斯這樣說道。事實上,市場最近并不是一帆風順:近幾周出現了兩次回調,“與病毒有關的負面新聞至少是其中的部分推動因素。”桑德斯說。

但這并不意味著投資者現在只關注疫情走向。事實上,在愛德華?瓊斯公司的策略師內拉?理查森看來,“投資者更傾向于認為,最好的行情還在后面。我認為市場正處于第一波疫情的前面,甚至走在了第二波疫情的前面,并且已經在展望2021年了。”她告訴《財富》雜志。

理論二:市場上漲是因為投資者希望拜登在11月的大選中獲勝

可能性:不可能

大選總是會讓市場動蕩不安,而且不只是在大選之夜。

一些華爾街公司現在認為,民主黨總統候選人拜登的勝利,對于股市來說甚至可能是好兆頭。“目前的普遍看法是,如果民主黨在11月成功問鼎白宮,將對股市構成利空。不過,我們認為這種結果對股市的影響是中性的,甚至輕微利好。”摩根大通的策略師在7月6日發布的報告中寫道。

愛德華?瓊斯的理查森說:“市場的估值正在把總統候選人將持有溫和立場這一因素考慮在內。因此,鑒于未來總統喬?拜登的政策主張更為溫和,民主黨將現任總統挑落下馬,并不會被市場視為一種極端不利因素。”

然而,包括德特里克在內的多位策略師“并不認為股市是因為拜登將入主白宮而上漲了這么多,至少現在不是這樣。”他說。

理論三:市場上漲是因為企業盈利在好轉

可能性:有可能

鑒于數十家公司已經暫停發布業績指引,相關預測慘不忍睹,投資者基本上不再關注2020年的盈利狀況。這已經不是什么秘密了。事實上,《財富》雜志在6月初報道稱,投資者已經不理會2020年的數據,轉而將目光投向2021年的盈利前景,并以此為據來解釋目前的股價走勢。但桑德斯不太相信這種看法。“即使你對2021年的盈利有所期待,我也不認為在這種環境下,誰會對盈利前景信心十足。”她說。

投資者似乎確信,第二季度的盈利數據可能不會像預期的那樣糟糕。

研究公司FactSet的分析師團隊預計,第二季度的盈利將暴跌43.8%。但德特里克認為,如此巨大的數字可能會讓市場出現意外的上漲行情。“可以有把握地說,市場像目前這樣反彈,意味著投資者預計企業的收益將趨于穩定,或者好于預期。”他說。

事實上,理查森認為,“市場已經消化了第二季度盈利有可能大幅下滑的影響,并且預計第三和第四季度的下滑速度將會放緩。”他說:“任何改善,哪怕數據仍然很難看,也會被視為利好。”

理論四:股市上漲是因為經濟數據好于預期

可能性:很有可能

德特里克最相信的理論是,經濟重啟的過程將好于預期,盡管不會一帆風順。

“股市告訴我們,美國經濟的穩健程度確實有可能在今年下半年大幅改善,因為股價走勢往往會引領實體經濟。我們認為,看好經濟重啟的前景,或許是市場近期迅速反彈的最強推動力。”他說。

6月的失業率從5月的13.3%和4月的14.7%降至11.1%。與此同時,在連續兩個月大幅下降后,消費支出在5月大幅上升8.2%。

制造業也在回暖。供應管理協會編撰的采購經理人指數(PMI)在6月錄得52.6,高于5月的43.1(任何高于50的讀數都表明制造業處于擴張狀態)。在德特里克看來,制造業的反彈堪稱“煤礦里的金絲雀”,是經濟復蘇的好兆頭。

愛德華?瓊斯的理查森認為,“正是所有這些來自經濟基本面的驚喜”,在最近幾周提振了市場。“市場關注的不是實際水平,而是變化率。這些變化率現在指向一種積極的、比正常情況更快的復蘇。”她說。

但不斷改善的數字也構成了威脅。桑德斯認為,“對最初幾個月的數據點所做的趨勢外推太過超前了。在這種環境下,重要的還是數據的實際水平。”

理論五:股市上漲是拜美聯儲所賜

可能性:極有可能

市場為什么會上漲?如果你問嘉信理財的桑德斯,答案很簡單。“如果要對推動股市上漲的最相關因素進行排序的話,我認為最大的推動力就是美聯儲,或許還會加上國會,也就是廣泛的刺激措施。”

在過去的幾個月,從啟動主街貸款計劃(Main Street Lending Program),到購買公司債券,再到將利率降至基本為零的水平,美聯儲已經做了所有能做的事情。與此同時,聯邦政府啟動了規模達2萬億美元的《冠狀病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法案》(CARES Act)。

即使經濟迅速惡化,“不要和美聯儲作對”這種心態仍然推動市場高歌猛進。桑德斯指出,投資者認為美聯儲“將在必要時采取行動”,這種想法“或許是對的”。但她擔心投資者過于依賴美聯儲主席鮑威爾手里的那把“流動性注水器”。

桑德斯指出,美聯儲是金融體系的后盾,但“他們的使命并不是在金融系統不穩定的情況下阻止股市下跌。”從這個意義上說,她想知道,“在美聯儲推動的股市上漲中,有多少是基于美聯儲出于正確理由而實際采取的刺激措施,有多少是基于這樣一種預期:無論發生什么情況,股市都不會下跌,因為美聯儲會介入?”(財富中文網)

譯者:任文科

The world is smack-dab in the middle of one of the worst global economic crises in history, not to mention a pandemic that has claimed over half-a-million lives. Yet the stock market won't stop going up.

While casual market observers may be scratching their heads, it's key to remember the market is a forward-looking mechanism. That means even in the worst-case scenario (like, perhaps, a global recession and pandemic combo), the market is likely looking to brighter days ahead.

And to those like Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist for LPL Financial, that's what seems to be happening.

"The stock market is saying, ‘In a year, the coronavirus is not going to be an issue.’ It’s looking past that," Detrick tells Fortune.

The S&P 500 has recovered a massive 42% since its bottom in March, leaving it down just 2% for the year. And in the past two weeks, while cases of the coronavirus continue to spike across the country, markets have risen about 3%.

Fortune asked three strategists what's underlying the stock market's recent rise.

Theory 1: The market is up because the virus is under control

Likelihood: Not likely

Despite the trajectory of the market, investors are probably not boosting stocks because they think the virus is under control. In fact, Detrick suggests, many are still "scared to death."

As cases keep spiking, though, "it’s sort of a big, collective, everybody’s got their fingers crossed," Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders suggests. Indeed, the market hasn't been all smooth sailing lately: There have been two pullbacks in recent weeks that Sonders says were "at least partly driven by pretty negative news virus-related."

But that doesn't mean investors are purely focused on the virus situation right now. In fact, according to Edward Jones’s Nela Richardson, "I think investors are more thinking the best is yet to come. I think the market is just ahead of the first wave, gets ahead of even a second wave, and is already looking at 2021," she tells Fortune.

Theory 2: The market is up because investors want a Biden victory in November

Likelihood: Not likely

The election was always going to roil the markets, and not just on election night.

Some Wall Street firms are now suggesting a Democratic (Biden) victory could even bode well for the stock market: "The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will be a negative for equities. However, we see this outcome as neutral to slight positive," strategists at JPMorgan wrote Monday.

Edward Jones’s Richardson suggests a "more moderate candidacy is now being priced into the market so that a potential Democratic upset of an incumbent President wouldn't be seen as extreme given the more moderate views" of a would-be President Joe Biden.

Yet strategists like Detrick "don’t think the stock market is up as much as it is because it’s a Biden victory, right now at least," he says.

Theory 3: The market is up because earnings are on the mend

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

It's no secret investors have largely been writing off 2020 for earnings, given that dozens of companies have suspended guidance and the estimates are grisly at best. In fact, Fortune?reported in early June that investors have already discounted 2020 and are looking to 2021 earnings to justify how stocks are trading now. But Sonders is less convinced that "even on 2021 earnings to the extent you believe them, I don't think anyone can have conviction in earnings in this environment," she says.

What investors do appear to have is conviction that earnings for the second quarter likely won't be as bad as expected.

Analysts at FactSet are estimating earnings in the second quarter will plummet –43.8%. But a huge number like that likely sets markets up for a surprise to the upside, LPL's Detrick suggests. "I think it's safe to say with the market bouncing back like this, it is expecting solid earnings or better-than-expected earnings," he says.

Indeed, Richardson thinks "the market has already discounted a pretty big falloff in [second-quarter earnings], with slower slumps in Q3 and Q4," and that "any improvement, even if it’s bad…[is] going to be regarded as good."

Theory 4: The market is up because economic data is better than expected

Likelihood: Quite likely

Detrick is most convinced by the theory that the reopening, albeit not without its bumps, is going better than expected.

"The stock market is telling us that the economy really could be in much firmer shape the second half of this year because stocks tend to lead the economy, and we do think the theme of the reopening is probably the biggest chunk as to why stocks have bounced back as quickly as they have," he says.

Unemployment dropped to 11.1% in June (down from 13.3% in May and 14.7% in April). Consumer spending for May, meanwhile, surged from two months of massive drops, up 8.2%.

And manufacturing, tracked by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) by the Institute for Supply Management, came in at 52.6 for June, up from 43.1 in May (any reading above 50 indicates expansion). For Detrick, the rebound in manufacturing is "the canary in the coal mine."

It's "all these economic surprises we’ve had" that have helped boost markets in recent weeks, argues Edward Jones’s Richardson. "The market is not focused on levels, they’re focused on rates [of change], and right now those rates point to a positive and quicker-than-normal recovery," she says.

But the ever-improving numbers also pose a threat. Sonders suggests there's been "too much extrapolating of the initial months' data points too far into the future," and that what's important "in this environment is also the level of the data."

Theory 5: The market is up because of the Fed

Likelihood: Extremely likely

Why is the market up? If you ask Charles Schwab's Sonders, the answer is simple: "If you attempted to rank order what is probably most relevant to why the stock market has done what it’s done, I think it’s what the Fed has done and maybe add in Congress—stimulus, broadly."

Over the past several months, the Fed has done it all: from standing up Main Street Lending facilities and corporate bond-buying to cutting interest rates to basically zero; while the government poured over $2 trillion into the CARES Act stimulus package.

The “don't fight the Fed” mentality is one that has bolstered markets even as the economy rapidly deteriorated. Sonders notes that investors "maybe rightly" think the Fed is "going to be there as necessary," but she's anxious investors are relying too much on the Jay Powell–led liquidity injector.

The Fed has the financial system’s back, but "their mandate is not to prevent a down move in the stock market absent financial system stability," Sonders points out. In that sense, she wonders, "how much of this move in the market tied to the Fed is based on the actual stimulus that they’ve kicked in for the right reasons, or a view that no matter what happens, there's no downside in the stock market because the Fed will step in?"

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