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研究表明:空出飛機中間座位可以將感染病毒風險降低79%

研究表明:空出飛機中間座位可以將感染病毒風險降低79%

Jeff John Roberts 2020年07月17日
在飛機上因感染新冠病毒而死亡的風險不到50萬分之一。

如果你計劃在新冠疫情期間乘坐飛機,那么最好選擇一家空出飛機中間座位的航空公司。研究顯示,這樣的政策將感染新冠病毒的風險從4400分之一降至7300分之一。

這一估計結果由麻省理工斯隆管理學院統計學教授阿諾德?巴尼特得出。他的研究表明,乘坐“無中間座位”的航班可將感染風險降低79%,他還指出,在飛機上因感染新冠病毒而死亡的風險不到50萬分之一。

然而,巴尼特承認,鑒于計算這種風險的難度,他的發現只是一個“粗略的估算”。

巴尼特的估算基于許多假設前提,包括假設所有乘客都戴著口罩,這個防護措施可以將感染新冠病毒的風險降低82%。他還假設,人們更可能從處于同一個過道的乘客那里感染新冠病毒,而不是從后面或前面一排的區域。

該研究不認為乘客去洗手間與上下飛機時有較高的感染新冠病毒的風險。但據《華爾街日報》報道,后一種情況可能會帶來巨大的風險,因為等待登機或爭先恐后存放行李的乘客之間離得很近。

該媒體引用巴尼特的研究認為,總體看,乘坐飛機并不是特別危險,部分原因是飛機的機艙內經常換氣。

巴尼特指出,航空公司中間座位的政策也會受到一些經濟因素的影響。

他表示,“這里的計算,無論多么粗略,確實表明,當飛機上的中間座位故意保持空著的狀態時,新冠疫情的風險可以顯著降低。”

問題是,就額外的預防措施而言,放棄三分之一座位的代價是否太高了?(財富中文網)

編譯:于佳鑫

如果你計劃在新冠疫情期間乘坐飛機,那么最好選擇一家空出飛機中間座位的航空公司。研究顯示,這樣的政策將感染新冠病毒的風險從4400分之一降至7300分之一。

這一估計結果由麻省理工斯隆管理學院統計學教授阿諾德?巴尼特得出。他的研究表明,乘坐“無中間座位”的航班可將感染風險降低79%,他還指出,在飛機上因感染新冠病毒而死亡的風險不到50萬分之一。

然而,巴尼特承認,鑒于計算這種風險的難度,他的發現只是一個“粗略的估算”。

巴尼特的估算基于許多假設前提,包括假設所有乘客都戴著口罩,這個防護措施可以將感染新冠病毒的風險降低82%。他還假設,人們更可能從處于同一個過道的乘客那里感染新冠病毒,而不是從后面或前面一排的區域。

該研究不認為乘客去洗手間與上下飛機時有較高的感染新冠病毒的風險。但據《華爾街日報》報道,后一種情況可能會帶來巨大的風險,因為等待登機或爭先恐后存放行李的乘客之間離得很近。

該媒體引用巴尼特的研究認為,總體看,乘坐飛機并不是特別危險,部分原因是飛機的機艙內經常換氣。

巴尼特指出,航空公司中間座位的政策也會受到一些經濟因素的影響。

他表示,“這里的計算,無論多么粗略,確實表明,當飛機上的中間座位故意保持空著的狀態時,新冠疫情的風險可以顯著降低。”

問題是,就額外的預防措施而言,放棄三分之一座位的代價是否太高了?(財富中文網)

編譯:于佳鑫

If you plan to fly during the pandemic, you're better off choosing an airline with a policy of keeping the middle seat empty. Such a policy lowers the risk of contracting COVID from 1 in 4,400 to 1 in 7,300, according to a new academic study.

That estimate comes from Arnold Barnett, a statistics professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His findings—which suggest a "no middle seats" flight reduces risk by 79%—also note that the risk of dying from catching COVID on a flight are less than 1 in half a million.

The new research should be taken with a grain of salt, however, as Barnett himself acknowledges. In his paper, he emphasizes that his findings are "rough conjecture" in light of the difficulties in calculating such a risk.

Barnett's calculations are based on numerous assumptions, including that all passengers are wearing masks—a step he says reduces risks of catching COVID by 82%. He also assumes that someone is more likely to catch COVID from those in the same aisle rather than from those in rows behind or in front of them.

The findings also disregard the risk of catching COVID from trips to the restroom, or from boarding or getting off the plane. But the latter situation may pose a significant risk according to the Wall Street Journal, which notes the close proximity of passengers waiting to board or scrambling to store luggage.

The Journal, which cited the Barnett study, suggested that flying is not especially dangerous overall, in part because planes frequently replace the air in the cabin.

For his part, Barnett concludes by noting that middle seat policy will also be informed by economic considerations facing the airlines.

"The calculations here, however rudimentary, do suggest a measurable reduction in Covid-19 risk when middle seats on aircraft are deliberately kept open," he writes. "The question is whether relinquishing 1/3 of seating capacity is too high a price to pay for the added precaution."

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