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對于美國大銀行,有一個好消息和兩個壞消息

對于美國大銀行,有一個好消息和兩個壞消息

Anne Sraders 2020年07月17日
今年以來的各種不利因素使得美國大銀行的經營環境變得極為復雜。

華爾街正做最壞的打算。

周二,摩根大通、花旗集團和富國銀行等多家大銀行公布了二季度財報。但正如預期,最令人擔憂的就是銀行都在積攢貸款損失準備金,金額創下紀錄。由于預計未來幾個月的公共衛生事件會對貸款人造成沖擊,摩根大通、花旗集團和富國銀行都為貸款違約預備了數十億美元。

“我認為,現在能看到的只是美聯儲和政府的援助計劃以及銀行延期,暫時還沒發現消費者的壓力,”D.A.Davidson高級研究分析師大衛?康拉德告訴《財富》雜志。“但我認為銀行的言下之意是‘危機來了’。”

貸款損失準備金“容易引發關注,而且面臨風險的高達數十億美元,但更值得關注的是銀行面臨著低利率、宏觀環境比預期糟糕,以及與疫情發展連續超預期等不確定性,盈利環境也越發復雜," Bankrate.com網站資深經濟分析師馬克?哈姆里克在一份報告中告訴《財富》雜志。

美國最大的銀行摩根大通撥出104.7億美元用于覆蓋貸款損失。這與今年早些時候首席執行官杰米?戴蒙在年度致股東信中的預期也保持一致,即最好的情況下,疫情也會導致“類似2008年全球金融危機的壓力”

現在,銀行業都在警告不確定性。首席執行官戴蒙警告稱:“盡管近期有些宏觀經濟數據比較積極,政府也采取了重大果斷的行動,但經濟未來走向仍存在諸多不確定性。”

好消息

銀行巨頭摩根大通也給投資者帶來巨大的驚喜:營收超過預期,達到330億美元,較去年同期增長15%。(與此同時,利潤下降了50%至47億美元)。

哪項數據最突出?摩根大通宣布固定收益交易創紀錄地收入73億美元。交易總收入增長79%,達到97億美元。危機期間市場大幅波動,加上美聯儲不斷向市場注入流動性并購買企業債,“投資銀行和資本市場相當活躍,大型銀行也增加了資本金,”康拉德指出。

然而,摩根大通等銀行管理層警告稱,交易帶來的巨額收入無法維持,“指導意見是類似情況肯定不會持續,”康拉德說。

銀行為迎接W型復蘇做財務方面的準備,但康拉德等分析師指出,盡管管理層預計經濟復蘇不會非常糟糕,但“為W型復蘇做準備時任何異動都需要更多儲備。”尤其隨著美國冠狀病毒新病例數激增,銀行對資產負債表支柱的信心可能“并不像表面一樣”。

值得欣慰的是,花旗集團也給華爾街帶來驚喜,收入198億美元(同比增長約5%),利潤13億美元(同比下降73%),兩個數據均超過預期。花旗在市場和證券領域的收入達到69億美元,增長48%,其中最大一塊來自固定收益交易,較去年同期增長68%。

一個壞消息

與此同時,富國銀行情況“有點糟”,康拉德表示。“富國銀行沒有投資銀行和交易收入補償,而且準備金不足,只能擴大準備金規模。”

該行公布,當季虧損24億美元低于預期,而收入較去年同期(178億美元)下降約17.6%。應對方面,富國銀行首先宣布派息削減至0.10美元。首席執行官查理?沙夫也未掩飾:“我們對二季度的業績和減少派息感到非常失望。與上個季度的預期相比,如今對經濟衰退持續時間和嚴重程度的看法非常悲觀,因此二季度增加了84億美元的貸款損失準備金,”他在公布業績時表示。

還有一個壞消息

然而,即便是盈利超過預期的兩家銀行,消費者收入也大幅下滑。摩根大通的消費者和社區銀行收入下降了9%,花旗集團則下降了10%。

“兩家都沒提消費者的收入,所以應該是負面居多。我認為,考慮到各種政府援助項目,資本市場(收入)與經濟幾乎脫節,也許消費者層面更能體現經濟周期里的收入狀況,”康拉德認為。從這個意義上說,“我認為未來幾個季度消費者收入將承壓,這可能是關鍵風險因素,決定了未來業績,”他說。

高盛的分析師們預期最為悲觀,預計二季度銀行盈利將下降69%。盡管周二公布財報時康拉德等分析師表示“受到鼓舞”,但他也指出,風險因素主要集中在消費者收入趨勢以及“商業銀行逾期和非應計貸款激增”。

下午花旗集團和富國銀行股價下跌,摩根大通則上漲了約0.5%。今年三家公司都處于虧損狀態。(財富中文網)

譯者:Feb

華爾街正做最壞的打算。

周二,摩根大通、花旗集團和富國銀行等多家大銀行公布了二季度財報。但正如預期,最令人擔憂的就是銀行都在積攢貸款損失準備金,金額創下紀錄。由于預計未來幾個月的公共衛生事件會對貸款人造成沖擊,摩根大通、花旗集團和富國銀行都為貸款違約預備了數十億美元。

“我認為,現在能看到的只是美聯儲和政府的援助計劃以及銀行延期,暫時還沒發現消費者的壓力,”D.A.Davidson高級研究分析師大衛?康拉德告訴《財富》雜志。“但我認為銀行的言下之意是‘危機來了’。”

貸款損失準備金“容易引發關注,而且面臨風險的高達數十億美元,但更值得關注的是銀行面臨著低利率、宏觀環境比預期糟糕,以及與疫情發展連續超預期等不確定性,盈利環境也越發復雜," Bankrate.com網站資深經濟分析師馬克?哈姆里克在一份報告中告訴《財富》雜志。

美國最大的銀行摩根大通撥出104.7億美元用于覆蓋貸款損失。這與今年早些時候首席執行官杰米?戴蒙在年度致股東信中的預期也保持一致,即最好的情況下,疫情也會導致“類似2008年全球金融危機的壓力”

現在,銀行業都在警告不確定性。首席執行官戴蒙警告稱:“盡管近期有些宏觀經濟數據比較積極,政府也采取了重大果斷的行動,但經濟未來走向仍存在諸多不確定性。”

好消息

銀行巨頭摩根大通也給投資者帶來巨大的驚喜:營收超過預期,達到330億美元,較去年同期增長15%。(與此同時,利潤下降了50%至47億美元)。

哪項數據最突出?摩根大通宣布固定收益交易創紀錄地收入73億美元。交易總收入增長79%,達到97億美元。危機期間市場大幅波動,加上美聯儲不斷向市場注入流動性并購買企業債,“投資銀行和資本市場相當活躍,大型銀行也增加了資本金,”康拉德指出。

然而,摩根大通等銀行管理層警告稱,交易帶來的巨額收入無法維持,“指導意見是類似情況肯定不會持續,”康拉德說。

銀行為迎接W型復蘇做財務方面的準備,但康拉德等分析師指出,盡管管理層預計經濟復蘇不會非常糟糕,但“為W型復蘇做準備時任何異動都需要更多儲備。”尤其隨著美國冠狀病毒新病例數激增,銀行對資產負債表支柱的信心可能“并不像表面一樣”。

值得欣慰的是,花旗集團也給華爾街帶來驚喜,收入198億美元(同比增長約5%),利潤13億美元(同比下降73%),兩個數據均超過預期。花旗在市場和證券領域的收入達到69億美元,增長48%,其中最大一塊來自固定收益交易,較去年同期增長68%。

一個壞消息

與此同時,富國銀行情況“有點糟”,康拉德表示。“富國銀行沒有投資銀行和交易收入補償,而且準備金不足,只能擴大準備金規模。”

該行公布,當季虧損24億美元低于預期,而收入較去年同期(178億美元)下降約17.6%。應對方面,富國銀行首先宣布派息削減至0.10美元。首席執行官查理?沙夫也未掩飾:“我們對二季度的業績和減少派息感到非常失望。與上個季度的預期相比,如今對經濟衰退持續時間和嚴重程度的看法非常悲觀,因此二季度增加了84億美元的貸款損失準備金,”他在公布業績時表示。

還有一個壞消息

然而,即便是盈利超過預期的兩家銀行,消費者收入也大幅下滑。摩根大通的消費者和社區銀行收入下降了9%,花旗集團則下降了10%。

“兩家都沒提消費者的收入,所以應該是負面居多。我認為,考慮到各種政府援助項目,資本市場(收入)與經濟幾乎脫節,也許消費者層面更能體現經濟周期里的收入狀況,”康拉德認為。從這個意義上說,“我認為未來幾個季度消費者收入將承壓,這可能是關鍵風險因素,決定了未來業績,”他說。

高盛的分析師們預期最為悲觀,預計二季度銀行盈利將下降69%。盡管周二公布財報時康拉德等分析師表示“受到鼓舞”,但他也指出,風險因素主要集中在消費者收入趨勢以及“商業銀行逾期和非應計貸款激增”。

下午花旗集團和富國銀行股價下跌,摩根大通則上漲了約0.5%。今年三家公司都處于虧損狀態。(財富中文網)

譯者:Feb

Wall Street is preparing for the worst.

A slew of big banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, reported earnings for the 2nd quarter on Tuesday. But as expected, the biggest concerning sign was the record amounts of loan loss provisions the banks are building to hunker down: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all reserved billions for future loan defaults, as banks are anticipating the coronavirus crisis will deal a blow to borrowers in the coming months.

"I think what we’re seeing right now is [with] both the Fed and the government programs coupled with deferrals at the banks, we’re not seeing the consumer stress yet," David Konrad, senior research analyst at D.A. Davidson, suggests to Fortune. "But I think what the banks are saying is, 'It’s coming.'"

While the loan loss provisions are "the headline grabber and for good reason given the billions of dollars at stake, the earnings environment for banks is also complicated by low interest rates, a worse-than-expected macro environment and uncertainty associated with COVID-19 which continues to surprise in a negative way," Bankrate.com senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick told Fortune in a note.

JPMorgan Chase, America's largest bank, set aside $10.47 billion to cover loan losses. The provision fits with what CEO Jamie Dimon prophesied in his annual letter to shareholders earlier this year: best case, the pandemic will create "financial stress similar to the global financial crisis of 2008."

Now, banks are warning of uncertainty: CEO Dimon cautioned, "Despite some recent positive macroeconomic data and significant, decisive government action, we still face much uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy," Dimon said in the earnings release.

The good

But the bank titan also gave investors a big surprise: JPMorgan topped revenue estimates, reporting $33 billion, up 15% from the year-ago quarter. (Profits for the bank, meanwhile, dropped over 50% to $4.7 billion).

One standout figure? The bank reported record fixed income trading revenue of $7.3 billion—and total trading revenues were up 79% at $9.7 billion. Massive volatility in the markets amid the crisis, plus an ever-accommodating Fed injecting liquidity in the market and purchasing corporate bonds, has "just created this backdrop of a lot of investment banking and capital markets activity, and almost an accretive capital raise for the bigger banks," notes Konrad.

However, management at banks like JPMorgan have warned the massive revenues from trading won't be sustainable—"The guidance was certainly that that’s not going to continue," Konrad says.

The banks are preparing their balance sheets for a W-shaped recovery, but analysts like Konrad note that while management likely don't anticipate the recovery will go that poorly, "Any variation toward a W would create more reserves going forward." Especially with new cases of the coronavirus spiking across the country, the confidence banks have in their shored-up balance sheets might be "a completely different story."

Citigroup also happily surprised the Street, reporting revenues of $19.8 billion (up roughly 5% from last year) and $1.3 billion in profits (down 73% from a year ago), both above expectations. The bank's markets and securities revenues hit $6.9 billion, up 48%, with the lion's share coming from fixed income trading, up 68% from the year-ago period.

The bad

But Wells Fargo, on the other hand, was "a bit of a mess," Konrad remarks. "They don't have the investment banking and trading offsets, and they were behind in the reserves and had to take a much bigger reserve."

The bank reported a below-estimates $2.4 billion loss for the quarter, while revenues fell roughly 17.6% from the year-ago quarter (reporting $17.8 billion). To boot, the bank announced it will cut its dividend to $0.10. And CEO Charlie Scharf didn't sugar coat it: "We are extremely disappointed in both our second quarter results and our intent to reduce our dividend. Our view of the length and severity of the economic downturn has deteriorated considerably from the assumptions used last quarter, which drove the $8.4 billion addition to our credit loss reserve in the second quarter," he said in the earnings release.

The ugly

Yet even for the two banks that beat earnings estimates, consumer revenues slumped: JPMorgan's consumer and community banking revenues fell 9%, while Citigroup's dropped 10%.

"They both missed on consumer revenues, so that's kind of the opposite effect—I think the capital markets [revenue] was almost a disconnect with the economy given all the government programs, and maybe the consumer side was a little bit more reflective on the revenue side of where we’re at in the economy," Konrad suggests. In that sense, "I think the consumer revenue will weigh on the next couple quarters, so that’s probably the risk factor of otherwise really strong results," he says.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs were expecting the worst: the firm estimated earnings for banks to decline by 69% in the 2nd quarter. And while some analysts like Konrad walked away from earnings on Tuesday feeling "encouraged," he notes the risk factors are concentrated in consumer revenue trends and "the commercial past-dues and non-accruals that jumped up."

Citigroup and Wells Fargo's stocks were down in afternoon trading, while JPMorgan traded up about 0.5%. All three are deeply in the red for the year.

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